South Africans heading into the 2026 winter season are being met with a rare piece of good news: Eskom says it expects no load shedding over the winter months, even as electricity demand rises during the colder period. For many households in Gauteng and across the country who have lived through years of rolling blackouts, this marks a significant shift and brings cautious relief as winter approaches.
Eskom has adjusted its expectations for unplanned power outages, lowering its base-case assumption to about 12,000 megawatts of unplanned losses over the next five months, compared to around 13,000 megawatts in the previous winter outlook. In practical terms, this means the utility is planning for fewer unexpected breakdowns across its generation fleet than it anticipated a year ago, which strengthens confidence in supply stability.
Even in a more stressed scenario, Eskom says that if unplanned outages rise to about 14,000 megawatts, the power system is still expected to remain stable, with no load shedding anticipated. This is a key indicator of how much the system has improved compared to previous years when much lower levels of breakdowns would trigger rotational power cuts across the country.
For households, this is welcome news, especially heading into winter when electricity usage typically spikes due to heating, cooking indoors, and longer hours of lighting. However, the reality on the ground remains that electricity costs continue to climb, and many families are still carefully managing prepaid electricity to make it through each month without running out of units.
Eskom has also reported a significant financial improvement linked to reduced dependence on diesel-powered emergency generation. The utility says it has saved about R27 billion (around $1.64 billion) over the past three years by cutting back on diesel usage at its open-cycle gas turbine plants. This shift reflects improved performance in its coal fleet and a reduced need to rely on expensive backup generation to keep the lights on.
Despite the improved outlook, Eskom has confirmed that it is still making long-term structural decisions about the future of the grid. Between July and September this year, the utility is expected to decide whether new generation capacity will be delivered in time to support the planned and orderly shutdown of five older coal-fired power stations. This forms part of South Africa’s broader energy transition strategy, but it also highlights the balancing act between maintaining supply security and modernising the grid.
For now, the immediate message is one of stability. Eskom’s updated figures, including the 12,000 to 14,000 megawatt range of expected unplanned outages, suggest a system that is more resilient than in previous years. But for South Africans paying rising electricity bills, the story is still two-sided: while the risk of load shedding is lower, the cost of keeping the power on remains a daily concern.
As winter approaches, the hope is simple across homes, taxis, spaza shops, and small businesses: that the lights stay on, even as every kilowatt continues to count.
